EXCITING 2016 POLLS LOOMS, BINAY NOW ON TOP; POE, MAR IN HOT PURSUIT

OVERVIEW                                                    

1. Sustained TV/Radio ads allow top three presidential aspirants to keep abreast of each other in another media-driven 2016 campaign;

2. Binay parlays personalized campaign into gaining early advantage in pre-poll surveys, but must watch out for the early peak syndrome;

3. Poe, Roxas in statistical tie but more work needed to catch up with Binay; Quality and caliber of campaign team will define who will cross the finish line first;

4. It could be Chiz and Bongbong for the VP race unless Leni and Samahang Tsinelas gains ground;

5. Doubts on integrity of automated polls remain;

6. High satisfaction rating of top government execs towards the end of six-year term surprises analysts.

     The results of the latest non-commissioned Pulso ng Pilipino survey conducted by the Issues and Advocacy Center has sustained previous claims it made that the scheduled synchronized polls on May 9, 2016 will be a media-driven campaign with television, radio and print advertisements emerging as the most preferred medium employed by national candidates to put their respective political agenda across.
     In its survey conducted from Jan. 8 to 14, 2016 and using a new methodology called Random Direct Dial, the responses from registered voters who are eligible to vote in the May 9 automated polls and cutting across all demographic sectors, the results will show that the decision-making process of Filipino voters can be enhanced and influenced by the outpouring of information supplied by the national candidates through the different types of media platforms such as newspapers in both broadsheets and tabloids, television and radio and social media.
     Ed M. Malay, head of the Issues and Advocacy Center, also said the rather high margin of error of 2.5% that they have adopted is due to the volatile character of the Filipino voters which makes it difficult to cull an accurate representation of the political environment in view of the pending cases for disqualification involving two of the presidential candidates.

     The Pulso ng Pilipino survey for the period in review shows that VICE PRESIDENT JEJOMAR BINAY (30%) has widened his lead over rivals SEN. GRACE POE LLAMANZARES (22%) who is now in a statistical tie with former DILG SEC. MAR ROXAS (22%) (See Table 2)
     The strategic placements of the advertisements on television and on radio allowed both Poe and Roxas to generate the needed amount of perceptibility support by gaining approval from among the 22% of those who were polled by Pulso ng Pilipino who among the 10 presidential candidates will they vote for in case the elections are held today.
     The ratings of VP Binay is a different case scenario that continues to baffle the arm-chair political analysts and it would seem that the negative publicity arising from the series of Senate hearings did not even dampen the enthusiasm of the voters for the diminutive Vice President. The Center has a ready explanation for what it calls a political puzzle because the Senate hearings at the very least should have cut Binay down to size but it didn’t.
     Why and how come? The answer is simple. While the Blue Ribbon sub-committee was busy trying to reduce Binay to pieces, the Vice President doggedly stomped the political campaign field going to places and localities that no other presidential aspirant has ever set foot on. Never does a day pass that Binay is not out there in the field, preferring to stay in the homes of his political leaders rather than check into the comforts of hotels in areas he is campaigning. It actually doesn’t matter whether the charges against Binay are true or not.
     The survey ratings of the Vice President actually show that the people doubt the actual intent of the Senate hearings and many are drawn to deduce that these are indeed politically motivated. The fact that the Senate hearings still have to be wrapped up and that no formal charges have been filed only sustains the allegations that the hearings are merely meant to cut Binay’s seeming advantage.
     On the other hand, Sen. Grace Poe who shot to the top of the ratings after she launched her presidential drive and organizing her own “Walang Maiiwan sa Gobyernong May Puso” to be the vehicle of her campaign has actually very little ground to stand on except her affinity to the late cinema king Fernando Poe Jr. when she entered the political scene in 2013. And it is largely due to the popularity of the late action king that Ms. Poe was elected to the Senate with the largest number of votes in the history of Philippine elections.
     Her popularity stood still at the top for a while before it started plummeting as a result of the controversy surrounding her nationality and questions regarding her residency status. And as the campaign progresses, it also became evident that the Filipino voters appears to have awaken from their stupor and or, may have become more discerning with the advent of social media that voters now look beyond just popularity and are in search of quality and caliber.
     Primarily, what may have affected her campaign are the controversies that continue to hound her and unless she can prove her nationality beyond any reasonable doubt and her residency status, she will be regarded as too raw for the highest elective position in the land especially when her credentials and qualifications come under review.
     But Senator Poe may have an ace up her sleeve when the official campaign period finally gets off the ground. We have it on good source that she is putting the finishing touches to a broad-based economic and livelihood support fund that will help empower the ordinary Filipino household into becoming a productive enterprise.
      On the part of Roxas, the surge from a single-digit rating six months ago to a respectable 22% may have been brought about by the campaign organization that the Liberal Party has set up and the alliances it has forged on the ground with other political parties and aggrupation. Roxas’ campaign will continue to be hampered by the increasing criticism for his continuing support for “Daang Matuwid.” As instances of graft and corruption are brought to fore, the Daang Matuwid has been criticized and as critics demonize the administration many fear that the Daang Matuwid may spell the defeat of Roxas at the polls.
     What the critics may be forgetting is the fact is the Daang Matuwid should not be blamed for whatever corruption there may be in government. The Daang Matuwid is a slogan for a program intended to establish a government in which corruption will be held to a minimum. If there will arise some government executives who will go against the grain of honesty and accountability, then it is not the fault of the Daang Matuwid but of the person in position. The problem is that except for a few, President Benigno Simeon Aquino III refuses to fire those involved in these shenanigans.    
     That said, Roxas who I believe is peaking at the right time will most likely improve in his ratings especially when the official campaign period starts on February 10. Remember too that except for the controversies thrown at him, Roxas can be regarded as the most qualified among the presidential candidates having served in the House of Representatives, Senate, and the Executive Department not to mention that he is part of the big business conglomerate that operates the Araneta Center in Cubao. In other words, Roxas boasts of the tools needed to perform the job of President of the Philippines.
     Unless Binay pads up his 8% lead over his closest pursuers to a double-digit lead, the Pulso ng Pilipino shows that the 54 million voters have not really made up their minds yet and have not firmed up their choices as to who they will vote for on May 9, 2016 sustaining once again the assumption made by Pulso ng Bayan that this year’s election for the top two national positions will go down the wire and the candidate who has a well-organized political machinery will enjoy the advantage when the voters go to the polls on May 9.
     Although Pulso ng Pilipino did not measure the depth of public opinion in its latest survey, there is a very strong possibility that the public for some reason may have also acquired the ability to dissect which of the information they receive and or fed to them through the various forms of media are legitimate issues and which are political propaganda and it is also possible that the Senate hearings, with regards to nationality and residency and, the violent attacks on social media, may have actually worked in favor of all three candidates – Binay, Poe and Roxas.
     Mayor Rodrigo Duterte (20%) is also starting to move up in the rankings after his campaign ran roughshod over the “cussing the Pope” controversy and other issues relative his character as a person. But just as in the case of Erap Estrada, there is a chance the Filipino voters will overlook these negative attributes and will be attracted to the tough-talking Hizzoner of Davao City who promises to stamp out graft and corruption and criminality.
     But his methods do not sit well with the Church and the international human rights groups and even with the Philippine military who disdain Duterte’s alliances with the New People’s Army many of whom have been recruited to form the deadly Davao Death Squad. All these notwithstanding, Duterte takes pride in Davao as one of the safest places to live in where speed limits within the city is pegged at 30km/h, where firecrackers are banned and, where smoking in public places is strictly prohibited.
     Overall, Duterte stands on peace and order and a graft-free government as the centerpiece of the government that he plans to put in place in the event he is elected on May 9, 2016.
                   VICE PRESIDENTIAL RACE (See Table 3)
      In the vice presidential contest, SEN. CHIZ ESCUDERO (29%) jumped to an early lead at the beginning of the unofficial campaign for the vice presidency last year but saw his lead clipped by the surging popularity of SEN. BONGBONG MARCOS (26%) who have generated a lot of following from his firm stance in reviewing the disadvantageous portions of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) which would have decimated the Philippine territory into pockets of mini-republics.
     What will probably affect the campaign of Escudero is the fact that there are three candidates coming from the Bicol region – SEN. GRINGO HONASAN who is in partnership with Vice President Binay and REP. LENI ROBREDO (17%) who is running in tandem with Mar Roxas.
     If reports prove to be true, Marcos enjoys the advantage of being backed by the 6-million strong Regions 1 and 2 and Leyte provinces while Sorsogon where Escudero comes from has only about 425,025 voters as of last count. Of the provinces in Region V, Camarines Sur boasts of more than 1-million votes but this is where Leni Robredo comes from and the legacy left behind by the late Interior Secretary Jesse Robredo is something that cannot just be ignored.
     With a good four months to go before the May 9, 2016, the Pulso ng Pilipino sees a three-way fight among Escudero, Marcos and Robredo and the key to victory will depend on how the command votes will play out. As with the presidential contest, the race to the vice presidency is also a mad dash to generating support from political groups outside of the known bailiwicks of Escudero, Marcos and Robredo.
     Though there have been persistent attempts to continue to demonize the administration of the late President Ferdinand Marcos the fact that none of the cases filed against the Marcos has prospered only shows that these allegations stand on sandy soil. At the same time, the young Marcos has proven to be an able legislator especially with the way he handled the public hearings relative to the BBL.
     Marcos will also be remembered as the first provincial executive who pioneered in the use of alternative energy when his administration adopted the use of wind turbines at Bangui, Ilocos Norte to generate electricity. The now famous Bangui windmills was years ahead in the application of alternative sources of energy as it is only now that the government has started adopting different forms of alternative sources of energy.
     Of late, there have also been questions as to what happened to the Philippines after 30 years. The EDSA People Power Revolt of 1986 and also in 2001 were supposed to institute reforms which would have restored the lost glory of what the Philippines was, but what happened?
     But don’t count Leni Robredo out just yet. With indefatigable strength and perseverance, Robredo has gone to the length and breadth of the archipelago displaying her unique brand of campaigning – that of making the people feel that she is one of them. With a very capable parallel group to backstop her campaign, expect the figures of Robredo to climb to within reach of Escudero and Marcos. In the end, the Pulso ng Pilipino sees the vice presidential election to be a toss-up between Marcos and Robredo.
            SENATORIAL PRE-POLL SURVEY (See Table 4)
     Another proof that the May 9, 2016 national polls will be a media-driven campaign is the way that SEN. VICENTE ‘TITO’ SOTTO III (60%) holds sway in the senatorial race. With nary a significant bill to his credit over the past six years, Sotto remains as the most favored candidate who can be reelected in the coming political exercise with some 60% of respondents saying they will vote for Sotto of “Eat Bulaga fame” if the elections are held today.
     Former Sen. PANFILO LACSON (53%) is in second with former Sen. KIKO PANGILINAN (49%) in third. Tied for fourth to fifth place are Senators RALPH RECTO and FRANK DRILON with identical (45%). SEN. SERGE OSMENA III and comebacking former Sen. MIGZ ZUBIRI registered (42%) apiece at sixth to seventh places. Former Justice Sec. LEILA DE LIMA is alone at eight spot with (39%) while SEN. TEOFISTO ‘TG’ GUINGONA and former Sen. RICHARD GORDON are in ninth to tenth place with (35%). Rounding up the Top 12 are REP. EMMANUEL PACQUIAO, Manila VICE MAYOR ISKO MORENO and former REP. RISA HONTIVEROS with (29%) and in eleventh to thirteenth positions.
     Those with a probable chance of still getting into the Top 12 are: Former MMDA Chairman FRANCIS TOLENTINO. REP. SHERWIN GATCHALIAN, former TESDA DIR. GEN. JOEL VILLANUEVA with similar 21%. Leyte REP. MARTIN ROMUALDEZ is still in good position with 19% while celebrity EDU MANZANO has 18%.
          
                    ADVERTISING A DECIDING FACTOR
                    IN COMING POLLS; BUT DOUBTS
                    ON AUTOMATED POLLS REMAIN
     A great majority of the respondents also said their decision may be influenced by advertising placements in the different forms of media platforms particularly print, radio and television and respondents said advertising will have an impact on the way they will vote. Thus, victory in the 2010 national elections will be dependent to a large extent on how these advertisements will be strategically placed and the mediums used. (See Table 5)
      On the issue of the Automated Election System (AES), the Pulso ng Pilipino survey showed that while there is a high 95% of awareness from among the voters as to the Automated Election system (AES) and 89% claim they have knowledge on how to go through the AES while 6% says they have little knowledge about the AES and 5% say they have no knowledge at all about the AES. Significantly, while 49% said they trust the integrity of the PCOS machines, the AES suffers from a negative perceptibility with a high 40% saying they doubt its accuracy (27%) and 13% said they trust the system and 11% said they don’t know.

                    HIGH TRUST RATINGS OF GOVERNMENT
                                    EXECS BAFFLE ANALYSTS
     Though the high trust ratings (See Table 1) accorded the country’s top five government officials has surprised political analysts, the more telling scenario is that the people have become passive and oblivious to the performance of the country’s ranking executives. This could only mean that the people simply don’t care anymore about how their leaders perform or are performing and it seems that the people just go through their day-to-day preoccupation without any concern as to how their lives are impacted by the performance of the government.
     This indifference of the people is actually more pervasive in the rural areas where life goes about with the people more concerned about how to put food on their table than how their leaders function. In other words, this tendency to be generous with their perception of the country’s leaders comes from the resiliency of the Filipino people who are imbued with the strength and perseverance to survive even the hardest of times leaving it to fate rather than place their state of life in the shoulders of their leaders.
              
            STRANGE COMBINATIONS ARE BEING FORMED
     Political groups and organizations who have their own preferences have started organizing their own political combinations and strange as it may seem, it appears that the coming May 9, 2016 national elections will turn out as exciting as ever. Following are some of the combinations that are being organized and these are supported up by solid financial backers. Besides the RO-RO (Roxas Robredo) and the BI-HON (Binay Honasan) tandems, interesting combinations are:
                   ALDUB (ALYANSANG DUTERTE BONGBONG)
                               BIBO (BINAY BONGBONG)
                    AROMA (ALYANSANG ROXAS MARCOS)
                                   BINCHI (BINAY CHIZ)
                                  MARCHIZ (MAR CHIZ)
                               BIRO (BINAY ROBREDO)

TABLE 1: HIGH TRUST RATINGS OF GOVERNMENT EXECUTIVES COULD BE A SIGN OF PASSIVE BEHAVIOR WHEN THE PEOPLE HAVE BECOME OBLIVIOUS TO POLITICAL EVENT

ODDS ARE EVEN, PLACE YOUR BETS!

      The release of the most recent pre-poll surveys of the Social Weather Station (SWS) and Pulse Asia that were conducted at almost the same time can be good for the top two presidential candidates - Vice President Jejomar Binay and Sen. Mary Grace Poe - because it will give both the momentum to continue setting the campaign trail ablaze to maintain and sustain their respective bases of support.
      Both have a wide support base with Binay taking advantage of having started his campaign from Day 1 of his Vice Presidency in July 2010 and from the benefits generated from the relationships he has established relative to the sister-city agreements he has forged with hundreds of cities and municipalities throughout the archipelago.
      Poe, on the other hand, continues to benefit from the huge popularity of the late movie king Fernando Poe Jr. whom many believed would have won the 2004 presidential elections had not then Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr. turned a blind eye to the alleged ballot switching operation at the House of Representatives.
      Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte blew into town and swept almost everyone off their feet but the public were turned off as easily as when they idolized him when the tough-talking hizzoner thought that the 105 million Filipinos will bite all the cussing, fussing and filth coming from his mouth.
      Duterte had tried to build his campaign by demonizing the current political and social environs to justify his tough stance on criminality and it actually almost worked as it did in Davao City but then the public must have realized that the situation is actually not as bad as Duterte and his spinners have tried to create.
      While the statistics for Duterte remains on the high side, the ratings registered by Binay and Poe could only mean that a respectable segment of the voting public have begun their discernment process aided by the fact that the problems of the country are varied and not just confined to peace and order nor is it also the be all and end all of the country’s economic progress.
      At the same time, what many may have overlooked from the survey results was the standing of pro-administration candidate former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas who registered a respectable 17% in the Pule Asia survey of Dec. 4-11 and a high 22% in the SWS survey of Dec. 12-14.
      Punters will certainly view the rating of Roxas as inconsequential and not worth looking into. But where Roxas is now in terms of his chances in the 2016 presidential polls is exactly the same spot in which then former Defense Secretary Fidel V. Ramos was in the 1992 presidential elections.
      Ramos in fact was not given much of a chance against a very strong field that included the well-oiled campaign machineries of the late Speaker Ramon Mitra, businessman Eduardo Cojuangco Jr., and then former First Lady Imelda Romualdez Marcos.
      The other candidates at that time - Jovito Salonga, Miriam Defensor Santiago and Salvador ‘Doy’ Laurel - were also regarded as political icons but the cigar-chomping general crisscrossed the country like no one has and slowly built on the initial 7% in the survey ratings after he lost the LDP convention in late-1992, moving up by almost 5% every month such that by the time the campaign period started in February 1992, Ramos was already perched at 15% especially after the then President Cory Aquino decided to formally endorse Ramos’ candidacy.
      By the time the final count was made, the votes were almost evenly distributed that Ramos won by plurality with only about 23% of the votes cast against the 19% of Defensor Santiago and the 18% of Cojuangco.
      My apologies for retracing the events of the 1992 polls but I thought I needed to because this is similar to the position of Roxas today leading to the May 2016 polls. The 17% in the Pulse Asia survey and 22% in the SWS survey are a good position to be in with a good five months to the 2016 presidential polls.
      Roxas is supposed to have come into the 2016 polls as a technocrat armed with the knowledge to continue building on the gains achieved by previous and present administration but his ratings dipped and this could be due to the strategy to sell Roxas to the C-, DE classes, hence there was a natural attempt by his handlers to seize at situations that would allow Roxas to connect with this segment, e.g., driving a nail in a house-build event, riding an underbone motorcycle in the mud, getting wet while conducting traffic under a steady drizzle, and hauling sacks of charcoal.  
      These photo-ops are good if you are running for a local position. The ‘palengke’ tag was good and it worked and Roxas topped the 2004 senatorial polls cornering 57% of the votes, a good 10% margin over closest rival Bong Revilla who posted 47%. The ‘palengke’ label wasn’t much of an issue as the DTI post was largely engaged in the supervision of basic commodities.
      But for next year’s polls, his handlers should not turn Roxas into what he is not. He should not be nudged into blowing the whistle in traffic nor drink from a plate. He is primarily a technocrat. Then he must build upon this image of a technocrat who is armed with solutions on how to lead this country into a world that is not only changing at a very fast clip in terms of advancements in technology and knowledge-based enterprises.
      Binay and Poe, on the other hand, will also have to work double-time to keep their pre-poll survey ratings lead. Binay would probably be doing the same thing he has been doing since 2010 and this is the reason why he has a core base of support that ranges from a minimum of 26% to 27% that was reflected in the SWS survey.
      Notwithstanding the issues leveled against Binay, his core base of up to 27% will still be there and this is a formidable advantage and the only way you can keep Binay from figuring prominently in 2016 is if the Senate Blue Ribbon sub-committee will wrap up its public hearings and submits its recommendations to the Ombudsman. But this scenario may be too late in the day.
      For Poe to win the 2016 polls, she has to hurdle the disqualification cases filed against her and she also has to try and reconnect with the voters in Mindanao where FPJ was highly regarded and also in the three Visayan regions. This becomes necessary in the face of the low ratings she scored in these regions in the Pulse Asia survey of Dec. 4-11.
     The rationale is that confusion may have set in among the voters with regards the disqualification cases Poe is tied up with. But another reality is the fact that being new in the game, Poe still has to build her own political base and this can be best achieved by using the various media platforms that are available. But the absence of media strategies in the Visayas and Mindanao regions could only mean that Poe’s media projection in these areas are not enough to make a her presence felt.   
      Like Binay, Poe has a core base of between 21% to 23% and for her to win next year’s polls she has to raise these figures to a comfortable level and the only way to do it is to redouble her campaign sorties in these areas and to strategize her media campaign in specific areas in these regions as well as generate the firm commitment of political leaders and POs in these regions that can deliver the votes and cut the downtime by skipping the pseudo-political leaders.
      The plus side of Poe is she brings a breath of fresh air to the local political scene. Among the candidates, Poe is the only one who remains unsullied by issues that may affect her persona. And despite the negativity directed at her, she has managed to keep her head above the water. She may be a newbie in politics, but Poe has managed to draw attention to her being independent in the way she handled the Senate Committees at which she is the chair person not to discount the fact that the people largely see in her the image of Da King who almost made it in 2004.
      With a fat war chest and support of an odd mix of campaign financiers, Duterte will most probably launch a spirited campaign but this may fall short as the campaign progresses and when the voters see there is nothing that Duterte can offer beyond his braggadocio. In the end, the stacks of human rights violations that have been documented by the Human Rights International may eventually affect his campaign especially so that the country’s problems are basically not just about peace and order.
      Even the series of surveys conducted by the SWS will show that the primary concern of most Filipinos is lost, unavailable or inadequate income opportunities. In a survey jointly conducted by Data Advisors and The Center, peace and order ranked below that of Livelihood and Income (1), Job Opportunities (2) Health and Sanitation (3), Access to Education (4), Housing and Shelter (5), Delivery of Basic Services (6), and Peace and Order (7) in the way these concerns have been perceived by those polled.
      This only shows that the voters will in all likelihood give more weight to any of the candidates in 2016 who will offer programs and or solutions to improve these areas of concerns. At the end of the day, the 2016 polls will be decided along the same lines that were present in 1992 in that the candidate who brings a package of alternatives to the ill-effects of traditional politics of patronage which continues to this day will bring the voters to his/ her side.
      Any political exercise is all about winning votes and the key to winning the 2016 presidential elections is for these candidates (a) to keep and protect the votes that they have now, (b) gather and win more votes especially those who are still uncommitted, (c) pull to their side even the committed votes, (d) scan the regions because there are still many areas where the political atmosphere remains volatile, (e) design an archipelagic campaign timeline that is results-driven but cost effective, (f) redesign and review and create an effective message that is compatible to the present-day realities and discard the usual political campaign promises built on non-plausible scenarios, (g) design a communications program that will provide them with the means to effectively communicate their message and agenda (print, radio and tv are the primary platforms but there are other mediums that are similarly effective and cheaper), (h) gain the trust of the electorate and build in them the confidence that they have what it takes to lead this country in a world that is changing each day and, (i) choose the people in whom you will entrust the sample ballots and the brown bag.
      But make no mistake about it, all four candidates, in my book, are all in the running for the 2016-2022 presidency because a 10% margin can disappear overnight as a result of gaffes in their campaign. Victory will depend on who among these candidates can send their message across and in whom the people will place their trust and confidence. # # #

IT'S TIME!

(This article was written by the late Sonny delos Reyes prior to the

national elections in 1995 at a time when he was president of

the Council of the Laity of the Philippines. I am reposting this

because I believe that what Sonny wrote remains true to this day.)

     The reality is that there is a surprisingly large number of Catholics — both clergy, religious and laity –who exclaim: “IT’S TIME.” It’s time that the spiritual, moral and social interests of the faith (and to be sure, of other faiths) be made a legitimate and operative issue in the selection of candidates and in the conduct of governance. It’s time that Catholics stand up for the principles they preach and labor to live out, in the face of blatant secularism and commercialism — principles upholding not merely the doctrines of Catholicism, but the common tenets of Christianity.
      It’s time we try to galvanize (at least Catholics and other persuasions as well), into acting politically in one mind and heart and one spirit, to proclaim the gospel of Christ and move for a social order compatible with the social teachings of the Church. It’s time we put political pressure on or government respect our non-negotiable pro-life principles instead of selling them down the river, to gain from geo-political and international trade advantages which benefit only the rich. It’s time we put our efforts and resources into integrating faith and life in the ONLY country where fidelity to the Magisterium is still a unifying element among the active Catholic lay leadership.
      The Catholic vote is an expressed standard of political belief and advocacy: when a citizen votes or stands for a principle or tenet (or supports a candidate who personifies such stand), upbuilding a clearly Catholic position, as defined by either the Magisterium or the Catholic Bishop’s Conference. The voter or advocate defends or pursues this position politically removed from interests or group he or she belongs to — be it family, neighborhood, business, patronage groups, sector, member of a political dynasty or party, a loyal follower of a popular personality, or a beneficiary of money. Thus he/she takes a position largely because of his or her Catholic principles.
      The emergence of this Catholic vote seems inexorable, if any fidelity at all is to be given to the acts or decrees of the Second Plenary Council; “…politics has been an obstacle to integral development…”(1991 PCPII, #348)
      “…the urgent necessity is for the lay faithful to participate more actively, with singular competence and integrity, in political affairs. It is through the laity that the Church is directly involved.” (1991, PCPII, #348)
      “Our plenary Council Stands on record to urge the lay faithful to participate actively and lead in the renewing of politics in accordance with values of the Good News of Jesus.” (1991, PCPII, #350)
      If we are to envision the Church of the Future, perhaps we must see the need to raise a new brand of disciples – those whose missions will be, beyond teaching the gospel for others to hear and know, to infuse the word of God into our public policies, and to enshrine the gospel in our national lifestyle.
      Perhaps, a new breed of martyrs, radical witnesses to the Lord, should be raised up to challenge the prevailing doctrines of this secular humanism in our nation which as Ralph Martin expresses in “A Crisis of Truth”, undermines the authentic word of God – not so much by rabid denial, but by the more devious and harmful tactics of fraudulence and nominalism.
      It is imperative for our Philippine Church to have an enlightened, vocal, and uncompromising leadership. And the core element of this is the very quality which enabled the first Christians to survive and even proliferate, in spite of widespread rejection and open persecution: a unity of heart and mind.
      “The community of believers were of one heart and mind.” Acts 4:32
      In faith, God’s people in this nation shall, in due time, be of one will in electing true disciples of Christ into the political offices of the nation. If the Holy Spirit is to empower the faithful in our vision of the Church of the Poor and of the Future, we cannot help but confront political issues, structures and systems which clash with the vision of the Church. Crime, corruption, consumerism, patronage politics, are but a few of the issues in which the Catholic faithful must confront in the political sphere.
      And to tread into this arena of contemporary life with no system, no force, is to ignore the very counsel of the Lord Jesus Christ: “I am sending you like lambs among wolves. Be clever as serpents and gentle as doves.”

2016 POLLS BREAK INTO PATH TO DIVERGENCE

      With the release of the most recent pre-poll surveys by the top two of at least five known data research firms, the race to the presidency in the 2016 national elections has now breached the point of what I call as the tunnel of divergence.
      After the pre-COC filing at the Commission on Elections (Comelec) and the pre-official campaign period between October 2015 and February 2016 when all the official candidates to national positions take the hustings, the presidential aspirants have now stepped into the point where they now have to convince the 54 million Filipino voters why they are worthy of the people’s trust.
      This is the point where these candidates - Vice President Jejomar Binay, Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, Sen. Mary Grace Poe, former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas and Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago will have to leave behind all the rhetoric and political fantissimo and braggadocio to begin going down to the basics of any political campaign and bring these to the diverse level of understanding of the Filipino electorate.
      The recent surveys of Pulse Asia (released on Dec. 22) and Social Weather Stations (published on Dec. 23) will show that the electorate or at least the survey respondents may have defined somewhat the issues plaguing the top two presidential aspirants - Mr. Binay who was haled to public scrutiny by accusations of committing plunder by the Senate Blue Ribbon sub-committee and Ms. Poe whom some quarters are trying to disqualify on account of her citizenship and residency - as the survey results show these issues barely created a dent in the campaign of both Binay and Poe.
      Not even the entry of Mayor Duterte whose presidential bid is also clothed in mystery - some claim his campaign is funded by business tycoons Lucio Tan who still has to contend with a pending tax collection suit, the Zamora borthers who are engaged in cloak and dagger business ventures, retail magnate Lucio Co whose Puregold Supermarket chain are stuffed with imported commodities that were loaded into container vans (of course), and real estate magnate Manny Villar who rose to become one of the country’s leading businessmen despite the collapse of his Capitol Savings Bank and his sponsorship of the notorious C-5 extension project - could dampen the campaign of Binay and Poe.
      While Duterte may have drawn a high degree of interest with his tough-talking style and the hype related to the much ballyhooed peace and order situation in Davao City, such interest and those that may have yet to be expressed have been flushed down the drain when he cussed Pope Francis and realizing his gaffe Duterte tried to laundry his soiled image by trying to connect with the Catholic Church through the Archdiocese of Davao City. Though the Church and the Filipino laity may be forgiving and merciful, this has affected Duterte’s presidential bid especially after reports also began circulating that his candidacy is linked to moves of the Administration to cut into the popularity of both Binay and Poe.
      The question is what keeps these two candidates on top of the heap. For one, Binay has been campaigning since Day 1 from the time he assumed the office of the vice presidency on July 1, 2010. His patronage of Senior Citizens particularly in the way the benefits accruing to the Senior Citizens in Makati have been publicized. Indeed, the Senior Citizens of Makati receive benefits that make them into what you may call S(poiled)enior Citizens. And this is not limited to the marginalized but even to the upscale senior residents in plush villages in Makati who are seen forming lines to collect their P2,000.00 cash gift.
      At the campaign trail, Binay rarely checks into a hotel but stays at the home of his political leaders. He eats what they eat and the boodle fight he has organized (ignored by many as a political gimmick) connects him with the Filipino masa. Since the campaign heated up, there is no day that Binay is not on the field. He lives and breathes campaign sorties and many times he goes back to places that he has already visited. He goes to far-flung areas that have never been visited by any presidential candidate in history.
      Grace Poe brings a new dimension to the face of Philippine politics. Parlaying to her advantage the legacy left by movie king Fernando Poe Jr., Grace has managed to keep the fire burning among the legions of Filipinos who felt disenfranchised when FPJ lost in the 2004 presidential elections.
      Despite the disorganized campaign that was managed by at least three campaign headquarters - that which was led by former Sen. Edgardo Angara, then Mayor Jojo Binay also has his own organization in support of FPJ, and another campaign headquarters that was manned by Sen. Tito Sotto, Sen. Gringo Honasan, and former Sen. Tessie Aquino Oreta - FPJ appeared to have won the elections although the final count could not support this assumption. The final count, however, remained in doubt following charges of ballot switching at the House of Representatives that was reportedly perpetrated by a prominent PNP General who would late become a political figure in the countryside.
      Being a political greenie, Poe remains unsullied by the political dirt permeating in local politics. When she talks, the public could see the sincerity in her and could relate to her struggles as a foundling and as the adopted daughter of FPJ. She minces no words when she speaks and has maintained a certain degree of independence notwithstanding the fact that her political career was launched through the auspices of the Administration.
      This is what she brings to the table and this is what attracts people to her side. The Administration is actually hemmed in between its support for Mar Roxas whom it wants to succeed President Benigno Simeon Aquino III and its drive to discredit Binay and disqualify Poe. There are two emerging scenarios through all these. If Poe is disqualified, an internal survey conducted by Data Advisors and The Center show that the people will vote for Binay if Poe is disqualified.
      If Binay is suspended and is unable to run in 2016 and Poe is disqualified, the same survey show that the backlash may favor Duterte instead of Roxas. Which is why it would be better for the Administration to keep Binay and Poe as candidates as it would be more credible for a Roxas victory if both are in the ballot.
      What may encourage the Administration to do just that cane be seen in  the results of the two surveys of Pulse Asia and SWS, there is something very significant that the public may not readily see or may tend to ignore. This is the standing of former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas who registered 17% in the Pulse Asia survey that was generated on Dec. 4-11 which places him in fourth place behind Binay (33%), Duterte (23%), Poe (21%).
      In the SWS survey, Roxas came in third (22%) behind Poe and Binay who were tied on top with identical (26%). The results of pre-poll surveys are based on certain premises that may include the prevailing political environment in the areas polled, media, educational foundation of the respondents, their status, social condition, and many more including the credibility of the data or field interviewers such that there is always a margin of error regardless of the percentage of such error margins.
      This is not to reduce the authenticity of these two surveys but what I am seeing is how Mar Roxas has gradually sneaked into what I call the “contention” circle which puts him within striking distance of the leaders if we are to apply the margin of error. Like Binay, Roxas has trudged the length and breath of the archipelago since the unofficial campaign period started and his recent survey statistics (17% in Pulse and 22% in SWS) could be an indication of the gradual shift in the discernment process of the Filipino electorate.
      It is possible that the people are beginning to factor in the qualifications of Roxas who is probably the most qualified among the candidates. There is also that possibility that the public have started looking at the issues that impact the current political scenario and have begun to see in Roxas the viability of what brings to the table.
      The only downside to the campaign of Roxas is how his PR and Media advisers are trying to turn him into something that he is not. Roxas is a technocrat who has worked for a large investment company in the US. The “palengke” image is history. It was a good propaganda for a certain period.
      Today, the political environment demands something more than image engineering. Roxas cannot be expected to drive nails into a wood, or conduct traffic in pouring rain, or carry a sack of charcoal on his shoulders. He cannot win the elections doing those things. He is a technocrat who can also rise up to the occasion by issuing a challenge at Duterte and so he should leave it at that and start telling us about his plans for either a continuance and or betterment of the current policies on governance.
     He managed the Department of Trade and Industry that saw through the growth of the Business Process Outsourcing and call center enterprises. Became Senator and pioneered in the introduction of cheap medicines from India and elsewhere. Served as Secretary of the DOTC and later DILG. By far, the people probably looks at Roxas as the most qualified among the contenders and this is reflected in the survey results.
     But with five months to go, now is the time for all these candidates to go down to the brass tacks of the campaign. The people need to read your minds folks and not just watch what you do. The people want to know what you can do to make life better for the 105 million souls of this country. The people want to know how they can have jobs, how they can augment their incomes, how they can afford to buy the basic necessities, how they can send their children to school, how they can avail of adequate medical attention and facilities, how they can have improved public services and, what else can the government do besides giving the marginalized P500 a month.
      In the end, the 2016 polls will be decided by who has the most viable program that will impact the political, social and economic life of the people. # # #