After the pre-COC filing at the Commission on Elections (Comelec) and the pre-official campaign period between October 2015 and February 2016 when all the official candidates to national positions take the hustings, the presidential aspirants have now stepped into the point where they now have to convince the 54 million Filipino voters why they are worthy of the people’s trust.
This is the point where these candidates - Vice President Jejomar Binay, Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, Sen. Mary Grace Poe, former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas and Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago will have to leave behind all the rhetoric and political fantissimo and braggadocio to begin going down to the basics of any political campaign and bring these to the diverse level of understanding of the Filipino electorate.
The recent surveys of Pulse Asia (released on Dec. 22) and Social Weather Stations (published on Dec. 23) will show that the electorate or at least the survey respondents may have defined somewhat the issues plaguing the top two presidential aspirants - Mr. Binay who was haled to public scrutiny by accusations of committing plunder by the Senate Blue Ribbon sub-committee and Ms. Poe whom some quarters are trying to disqualify on account of her citizenship and residency - as the survey results show these issues barely created a dent in the campaign of both Binay and Poe.
Not even the entry of Mayor Duterte whose presidential bid is also clothed in mystery - some claim his campaign is funded by business tycoons Lucio Tan who still has to contend with a pending tax collection suit, the Zamora borthers who are engaged in cloak and dagger business ventures, retail magnate Lucio Co whose Puregold Supermarket chain are stuffed with imported commodities that were loaded into container vans (of course), and real estate magnate Manny Villar who rose to become one of the country’s leading businessmen despite the collapse of his Capitol Savings Bank and his sponsorship of the notorious C-5 extension project - could dampen the campaign of Binay and Poe.
While Duterte may have drawn a high degree of interest with his tough-talking style and the hype related to the much ballyhooed peace and order situation in Davao City, such interest and those that may have yet to be expressed have been flushed down the drain when he cussed Pope Francis and realizing his gaffe Duterte tried to laundry his soiled image by trying to connect with the Catholic Church through the Archdiocese of Davao City. Though the Church and the Filipino laity may be forgiving and merciful, this has affected Duterte’s presidential bid especially after reports also began circulating that his candidacy is linked to moves of the Administration to cut into the popularity of both Binay and Poe.
The question is what keeps these two candidates on top of the heap. For one, Binay has been campaigning since Day 1 from the time he assumed the office of the vice presidency on July 1, 2010. His patronage of Senior Citizens particularly in the way the benefits accruing to the Senior Citizens in Makati have been publicized. Indeed, the Senior Citizens of Makati receive benefits that make them into what you may call S(poiled)enior Citizens. And this is not limited to the marginalized but even to the upscale senior residents in plush villages in Makati who are seen forming lines to collect their P2,000.00 cash gift.
At the campaign trail, Binay rarely checks into a hotel but stays at the home of his political leaders. He eats what they eat and the boodle fight he has organized (ignored by many as a political gimmick) connects him with the Filipino masa. Since the campaign heated up, there is no day that Binay is not on the field. He lives and breathes campaign sorties and many times he goes back to places that he has already visited. He goes to far-flung areas that have never been visited by any presidential candidate in history.
Grace Poe brings a new dimension to the face of Philippine politics. Parlaying to her advantage the legacy left by movie king Fernando Poe Jr., Grace has managed to keep the fire burning among the legions of Filipinos who felt disenfranchised when FPJ lost in the 2004 presidential elections.
Despite the disorganized campaign that was managed by at least three campaign headquarters - that which was led by former Sen. Edgardo Angara, then Mayor Jojo Binay also has his own organization in support of FPJ, and another campaign headquarters that was manned by Sen. Tito Sotto, Sen. Gringo Honasan, and former Sen. Tessie Aquino Oreta - FPJ appeared to have won the elections although the final count could not support this assumption. The final count, however, remained in doubt following charges of ballot switching at the House of Representatives that was reportedly perpetrated by a prominent PNP General who would late become a political figure in the countryside.
Being a political greenie, Poe remains unsullied by the political dirt permeating in local politics. When she talks, the public could see the sincerity in her and could relate to her struggles as a foundling and as the adopted daughter of FPJ. She minces no words when she speaks and has maintained a certain degree of independence notwithstanding the fact that her political career was launched through the auspices of the Administration.
This is what she brings to the table and this is what attracts people to her side. The Administration is actually hemmed in between its support for Mar Roxas whom it wants to succeed President Benigno Simeon Aquino III and its drive to discredit Binay and disqualify Poe. There are two emerging scenarios through all these. If Poe is disqualified, an internal survey conducted by Data Advisors and The Center show that the people will vote for Binay if Poe is disqualified.
If Binay is suspended and is unable to run in 2016 and Poe is disqualified, the same survey show that the backlash may favor Duterte instead of Roxas. Which is why it would be better for the Administration to keep Binay and Poe as candidates as it would be more credible for a Roxas victory if both are in the ballot.
What may encourage the Administration to do just that cane be seen in the results of the two surveys of Pulse Asia and SWS, there is something very significant that the public may not readily see or may tend to ignore. This is the standing of former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas who registered 17% in the Pulse Asia survey that was generated on Dec. 4-11 which places him in fourth place behind Binay (33%), Duterte (23%), Poe (21%).
In the SWS survey, Roxas came in third (22%) behind Poe and Binay who were tied on top with identical (26%). The results of pre-poll surveys are based on certain premises that may include the prevailing political environment in the areas polled, media, educational foundation of the respondents, their status, social condition, and many more including the credibility of the data or field interviewers such that there is always a margin of error regardless of the percentage of such error margins.
This is not to reduce the authenticity of these two surveys but what I am seeing is how Mar Roxas has gradually sneaked into what I call the “contention” circle which puts him within striking distance of the leaders if we are to apply the margin of error. Like Binay, Roxas has trudged the length and breath of the archipelago since the unofficial campaign period started and his recent survey statistics (17% in Pulse and 22% in SWS) could be an indication of the gradual shift in the discernment process of the Filipino electorate.
It is possible that the people are beginning to factor in the qualifications of Roxas who is probably the most qualified among the candidates. There is also that possibility that the public have started looking at the issues that impact the current political scenario and have begun to see in Roxas the viability of what brings to the table.
The only downside to the campaign of Roxas is how his PR and Media advisers are trying to turn him into something that he is not. Roxas is a technocrat who has worked for a large investment company in the US. The “palengke” image is history. It was a good propaganda for a certain period.
Today, the political environment demands something more than image engineering. Roxas cannot be expected to drive nails into a wood, or conduct traffic in pouring rain, or carry a sack of charcoal on his shoulders. He cannot win the elections doing those things. He is a technocrat who can also rise up to the occasion by issuing a challenge at Duterte and so he should leave it at that and start telling us about his plans for either a continuance and or betterment of the current policies on governance.
He managed the Department of Trade and Industry that saw through the growth of the Business Process Outsourcing and call center enterprises. Became Senator and pioneered in the introduction of cheap medicines from India and elsewhere. Served as Secretary of the DOTC and later DILG. By far, the people probably looks at Roxas as the most qualified among the contenders and this is reflected in the survey results.
But with five months to go, now is the time for all these candidates to go down to the brass tacks of the campaign. The people need to read your minds folks and not just watch what you do. The people want to know what you can do to make life better for the 105 million souls of this country. The people want to know how they can have jobs, how they can augment their incomes, how they can afford to buy the basic necessities, how they can send their children to school, how they can avail of adequate medical attention and facilities, how they can have improved public services and, what else can the government do besides giving the marginalized P500 a month.
In the end, the 2016 polls will be decided by who has the most viable program that will impact the political, social and economic life of the people. # # #
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